“Israel’s escalation, its purposes and outcomes.”
Part One
On Monday 6/12/2021, Israel attacked the commercial port of Lattakia resulting in material losses. The targeted containers contained foodstuffs according to the footage taken after extinguishing the fire caused by the explosion of the missiles. No casualties were reported, according to the statement of the Syrian Ministry of Defense.
Objectives and reasons..
First, it must be clear to everyone that the Israeli pretext of targeting Iranian sites or weapons destined for Hezbollah is completely untrue. Most satellite footage taken after the attacks shows that they are Syrian sites such as the Scientific Research Facilities and Air Defense bases, as Israel itself has admitted. According to images taken from the Sentinel Hub website (embedded video), the Israeli aggression on Syria’s central and southern regions that preceded Lattakia’s, has targeted the locations of the S-200 batteries south of Homs city.
The military cooperation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is public and none of these parties has denied it, even when Hezbollah or Iran suffer casualties in Syria due to their presence within some of SAA positions for support, it would not exceed 10% compared to the casualties among Syrian soldiers and civilians, neither Iran nor Hezbollah deny their martyrs, rather they publicly celebrate them because of their customs and their religious doctrine.
Hezbollah fighters were martyred in battles with ISIS in the desert, and were publicly buried
It is very possible that Israel obtained false information, as it has happened previously (whether intentionally or unintentionally), but this hypothesis depends first on the Israeli narrative that it targets Iranian weapons sent to Hezbollah, which we already denied. Moreover, this particular strike cannot stand any mistake, as it directly targets a civilian and commercial site, in addition to its proximity to Russian military sites. If there was any weapons shipment, why would Israel risk striking it in the port instead of waiting for it to be transported somewhere else?
However, it is still a possibility, but a very weak one.
The most logical explanation is the Israeli attempt to drain Syria both militarily and economically, which is already consumed by crisis, and also drag it into a war that fits the Israeli timing, to prevent stability in the region, thwart the Iranian-American negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal, and achieve a quick victory that secures its internal front and gives it a chance to expand even further. Israel perfectly knows that it has no chance of waging a war after the American withdrawal, which is inevitable even it has been postponed for now, especially if we link these attacks with Israel’s recent decision to invest $376 million to double settlements in the occupied Golan, and also with recent US statements:
“The president has made clear that if the policy fails, we are prepared to turn to other options,” Lloyd J. Austin III said. “The Department of Defense will continue to work closely with all of our partners throughout the region, including Israel, first and foremost, to ensure that we’re working together to address Iranian threats. We will defend ourselves, we will defend our friends, and we will defend our interests.” He added.
The second attack on Latakia’s port can be interpreted in the same context, especially if we add the Israeli movements in the south and the US in the east.
– Suffocating Syria economically..
With increasing indications that Syria is starting to regain its economic strength, such as the Syrian-Arab rapprochement represented by the UAE and other Arab countries, the conclusion of the Arab Gas Pipeline Agreement passing through Syria to Lebanon and the start of talks to pass a Qatari gas pipeline through Syria to Lebanon as well, in addition to Syria’s presidency of the OAPEC, hosting the Arab Energy Conference in 2024, and the participation of Arab observers in Astana Format‘s next meeting, along with the increasing possibilities of ending the Western diplomatic isolation imposed on Syria through the rapprochement of some countries with Syria in addition to starting to partially reduce Caesar Act’s measures, and Israel’s inability to target Iranian ships coming to Syria at sea for fear of retaliation (which was clear through the Iranian oil that reached Lebanon via Syria without Israel or even the US dare to intercept it). Taking all that, Israel finds itself facing the danger of Syria emerging from the war victorious, strong and ready for any direct confrontation with Israel, which is actually preparing for an attack on the Axis of Resistance.
Such aggression constitutes a message to the Syrian state its people that the economic siege and starvation will not stop, as it is intimidation for anyone who wants to deal with Syria commercially. This will raise the import costs and tighten the screws on the Syrian people even more.
This might be the most logical possibility, especially if we link it to the movements of Israel in the south and the US in the east.
Israeli movements in the south and the US in the east..
When Israel learned that the Syrian state decided to fully impose its control in the south by deploying SAA in the entire Daraa governorate to secure the Arab Gas Pipeline and the border crossings with Jordan, which will reflect positively on the Syrian economic situation, Israel held a meeting with its proxies in Ayn Dakararea in Quneitra countryside and instructed them to obstruct the government settlement as much as possible, also planned for post-settlement terrorist operations in order to insecure the region, such as targeting the Nassib-Jaber border crossing with an explosive device and carrying out several assassinations against Syrian civilians and soldiers, in addition to targeting Russian patrols.
It was clear that the US has forcibly turned a blind eye to the passage of Egyptian gas through Syria to Lebanon in an attempt to prevent an increase in Iranian influence there when the Iranian oil shipments began arriving through Syria. The US also sensed the danger of a Syrian-Kurdish rapprochement in the Eastern Euphrates region and saw the success of the settlement carried out by the Syrian state there, and the popular rejection for the US occupation, in addition to the escalating operations targeting US forces.
Video: burning the US flag https://youtu.be/G5V7xYPHfSA
A US DOS’s delegation arrived in northeastern Syria to reassure its separatist proxies and talk them out of any logical dialogue with the Syrian state. The International Coalition forces in the Koniko gas field guarded by the SDF, northeast of Deir Ezzor, conducted military exercises and deployed Bradley armored vehicles for the first time in the area to show their intention to stay and deprive Syria of its resources as long as possible.
Military exercises of the International Coalition in the vicinity of Koniko gas field, northeast of Deir ez-Zor
This coincided with ISIS intensifying its terrorist attacks in the area between the Syrian Badia and Iraq, while the SDF was preparing to release 2,500 ISIS detainees from its prisons, according to Athar Press, noting that the SDF had released other ISIS detainees in return for sums of money, according to an investigation by The Guardian.
ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria between 21/10/2021 and 21/11/2021
Syria’s retaliation..
Despite the losses that Syrian air defenses suffered by terrorists in the past 10 years, they showed high efficiency by shooting down most of the Israeli missiles in addition to the F-16I on February 10, 2018. However, with the escalation of the Israeli attacks, the biggest question has become, Where is the Syrian retaliation? President Bashar al-Assad answered this question by saying:
“There were Israeli attempts to breach and they were directly retaliated.. But the temporary retaliation has no value.. It is a retaliation of a political nature.. If we want to retaliate to Israel, it must be a strategic retaliation..”
An effective retaliation could be by deploying resistance forces along the southern borders and preparing popular resistance in the occupied Syrian Golan, which horrifies Israel more than any direct retaliation given its efficient long-term effect. In addition to continuing to defeat the Israeli-US-backed terrorists who are trying to weaken the Syrian state and its army, as Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs Faisal Miqdad said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4QNk778KOA
A lesson for history..
It was 1972 when Israel attacked Al-Rumaila neighborhood in Jableh city, a naval site that housed a small camp for Palestinian resistance, no casualties were reported among Palestinians, but the time bombs dropped by the Israeli warplanes killed many civilians.
A football match was taking place in the old stadium adjacent to the Sea Corniche during the attack. After bombing of Al-Rumaila area near the stadium, the Israeli warplanes flew over the stadium to show their superiority in a provocative manner, then disappeared over the sea.
No one knew at the time what weapons Syria possessed, or what it was planning to confront the Israeli aggressions. No one was able to monitor the popular reaction in the absence of Internet and social media, but the feeling of incompetence and powerlessness was overwhelming, some of those who witnessed the incident have conveyed the phrases were circulated: “We do not have a weapon that can curb these attacks” or “They are strong and can do whatever they want” or “The Phantom Legend”…etc.
People were right to be angry and frustrated, but the calm and cold-minded Syrian leadership did not count on their reactions.
One year later, in the October War of 1973, the Israeli warplanes “Phantom Legend” were dropping like flies as a result of the famous SAM missile strikes.
A clever hunter knows when to pull the trigger to get the biggest prey.
Two of the civilian martyrs due to the Israeli raid in 1972
Ibrahim Wahdi