Geneva II : What to expect?

Less than a month before the Geneva II conference will take place the diplomatic world is looking to a different deck of cards leaving the American side confused, the Syrian opposition in full disarray, Russia taking pole position and the Syrian government consolidating its solid position.

Once there were …

Once there were the Western backed Syrian National Coalition with its armed wing the so called Free Syrian army, the Islamist groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood supported by Turkey and Qatar and the takfiri and Wahhabi groups affiliated with al Qaeda and financed and armed by Saudi Arabia. All fighting against the legitimate government of President Bashar al Assad representing the Syrian people.

After the fall of President Mursi in Egypt and the anarchistic political situation in Turkey due to the policies of the Erdogan government, it was mostly Qatar the Muslim Brotherhood was counting on to support them. But even the Qatari’s underestimated the brutality of Saudi Arabia and its intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan whose machinations neutralised the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood militias in favour of the takfiri and Wahhabi terrorist groups.

When the aggression against Syria started now almost 3 years ago most Western analysts expected the Syrian government to fall within weeks or maximum a couple of months. They were flatly wrong as the underestimation of the cohesion and resilience of the Syrian people and its army was a huge judgment mistake.

For three years the Syrian army, with support of the people, fought back combatting terrorism and  annihilating the Free Syrian Army. What was left of this so called Free Syrian Army is now destroyed by the Saudi backed and al Qaeda affiliated groups with at its nadir the humiliating fled of its commander Salim Idriss to Qatar through Turkey.

With the Muslim Brotherhood politically neutralised and the Free Syrian Army decapitated it is up to the Syrian National Army to combat the remaining takfiri terrorists.

The fall of the Free Syrian Army rendering its political parent organisation the Syrian National Coalition impotent leaves the American strategy vis-à-vis Syria in shambles.

Who will sit on the negotiating table?

The Syrian government made it very clear from the beginning that they are opting for a political solution and are ready and willing to send a delegation to Geneva to negotiate without any pré-conditions.

On the other side of the table the situation is everything but clear. With the Syrian National Coalition and its Free Syrian Army flushed away by the extremist terrorist groups and these same groups stating without hesitation that a politically negotiated solution to the crisis is not an option for them one has to ask himself who will represent the opposition in Geneva.

The United States and its allies are now grasping the reality that they have lost total control of the situation on the ground  and they are surrendered now to the same groups who are responsible for the 09/11 attacks and the ones they have been fighting in Afghanistan for over a decade. The only ones who can control these fanatics are their masters in the Persian Gulf, namely Qatar and especially Saudi Arabia. But also the Saudis made it clear that they do not want an end to the bloodshed in Syria. With over 100.000 people dead and millions of refugees and displaced people the Saudi regime is following only the option of more bloodshed. They have no interest in peace and will spare no efforts or costs to combat Syria as a member of the resistance front.

What’s more? The United States and its Western allies did not only lose control over the situation but they also realize that hundreds or maybe thousands of jihadists from their own countries are travelling to Syria to fight their “holy war” and if not killed they will return to Europe, the United States, Australia and other countries fully brainwashed and hardened by combat. The intelligence agencies of these same countries are now faced with the nightmare of thousands of Jihadists out of their own people returning home to continue the holly jihad in their respective home countries.

The Iran factor

While the whole world is convinced that Iran, as the closest ally of Syria and a regional superpower, should attend the Geneva II talks as a necessity to reach a political solution, the United States boldly states that “they are not convinced”.

It would be surrealistic that Syria’s foes, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are invited to the conference while Iran isn’t.

We should realize that the war against Syria is a war against the whole axis of resistance. In this perspective the war against Syria is in the same time a proxy war against Iran and its other main ally Hezbollah. For the Americans the main goal to reach in Syria is not only the destruction of the country itself but, as an extension, the destruction of the axis of resistance with Iran as its main proponent.

For the Americans to sit on the same negotiating table with the Iranians to find a political solution to end the conflict and bloodshed in Syria, with Iran being part of that political solution, would translate to a complete failure and defeat for the American side. This makes Iran ‘s participation  at Geneva II not digestible for the American side.

Conclusion

With the Western backed Syrian coalition defeated, the takfiri and Wahhabi groups out of control and the Americans isolated with regard to their point of view vis-à-vis Iran’s participation in the Geneva II conference, one has to have a lot of optimism to expect a breakthrough as a result of Geneva II. The problem is not the Syrian side as they are prepared to negotiate a peaceful solution working in a coalition towards next year’s presidential elections. The real problem is that there is no representative interlocutor to talk to at the other side of the table and that a lot of participating countries in the conference do not have the genuine will or intention to really end the conflict. Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N. and Arab League special envoy for Syria, will need all his experience to make Geneva II work.

Kris Janssen

Antwerp

Belgium