“Israel’s escalation, its purposes and outcomes.”
The Israeli escalation.. Its objectives and reasons, the connection with Syria and the Iranian nuclear deal, Russia’s position amidst its crisis with Ukraine, and the Syrian retaliation in light of the rising possibilities of a military confrontation with the axis.
Continuing to what was said in Part One, it is important to explain Russia’s position.
Part Two: Russia’s position..
The Israeli aggression on the 27th of December is the 29th on Syria since the beginning of 2021, and the 4th on Lattakia since Russia started its military operations in Syria in 2015.
Its proximity to the Russian airbase in Hmeimim at less than 20 km, in addition to its coincidence with the passage of a Russian military plane, has raised many questions, whether in the press or among Syrians, about Russian silence or neutrality, which has become a mystery!
Many are criticizing Russia’s silence, even accuse it of conspiracy, especially with what the Israeli media has extensively published about the “warmth and intimacy” of the recent meeting between Bennett and Putin and allowing Israel to raid Syria freely under the pretext of the Iranian presence (which the Kremlin has not commented on), in addition to not using the S-300 systems that Russia supplied to Syria, and most importantly, the lack of understanding of the Russian presence’s nature in Syria, whether by comparing the Russian-Syrian relationship with the US-Israeli relationship, and the confusion between Russia’s alliance with Syria and its interests with Israel, or by comparing the nature of the Russia’s presence with Iran and Hezbollah’s presence in Syria, despite the assertion of the Deputy Foreign Minister Syrian Dr. Bashar al-Jaafari on the high coordination between Russia and Syria and a deep understanding of the changes taking place in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0spUi0MCtk&t=16s
Deputy Foreign Minister Syrian Dr. Bashar al-Jaafari on Al-Mayadeen TV
Perhaps what best explains Russia’s silence is the statement of Colonel Konstantin Sivkov, Vice President of the Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences in Moscow to RT,
“Russia is not at war with Israel, Russia was invited by the legitimate government in Syria to confront the illegal armed military formations banned in Russia and other countries, such as the ISIS,” Adding, “Russia supplies to Syria the latest air defense systems that allow an effective and serious response to these Israeli raids”
1- It must be understood that Israel’s relationship with the US is unlike any other alliance. Israel can be considered the 51st US state with the political, economic and military support it obtains, in addition to its great influence on the US policies through its lobbies, which is completely different from the Russian-Syrian relationship. The two countries have a historical relationship based on agreements that guarantee their mutual interests while preserving the independence of their decisions and orientations. Russia also has economic and political interests with Israel, but they cannot be considered allies, for example, there are no Russian military bases in Israel, and Russia has never supported Israel in any of its wars. Moreover, the Russian position has not been silent over the past ten years. Russian statements have repeatedly condemned the Israeli attacks on Syria, in addition to accusing Israel of using civilian planes Russian or military ones as a shield for its attacks.
“The Syrian military leadership decided not to use air defense systems, since at the time of the Israeli aviation attack, two civilian passenger aircraft were in the zone of destruction of the anti-aircraft systems,” Kulit said, Sputnik news reported.
2- Russia has deployed S-400 air defense systems in its bases to protect these bases not to protect the Syrian state, which has its own independent air defense systems. The Syrian leadership did not ask Russia to fight a war on its behalf nor it will do, and there is no Mutual Defense Treaty between the two countries.
3- Russia has never prevented the Syrian state from defending itself by any means, neither it will do so in the future. It is a Syrian national right and duty. Talking about a Russian veto on using S-300 is illogical!
Regardless of Syria’s sovereignty and independency, the Iranian-Syrian military agreement on 07-08-2018 included the delivery of the Iranian-made Bavar-373 long-range systems to Damascus, which is equivalent or even a competitor to S-300, in addition to the medium-range 3rd Khordad, so practically the Syrian leadership is not bound by any Russian veto if it wants to use any of its weapons to repel any aggression.
4- The nature of the Iranian presence may not differ much from the Russian’s in terms of reasons and interests, as both countries are in Syria based on an official invitation from its legitimate government to provide military support to fight terrorism that will move to their lands if it is not eliminated in Syria. Access to the Mediterranean is also a strategic goal for both countries, in addition to economic investments in post-crisis Syria, but there is a difference in terms of objectives, principles, capabilities and application. Although the military, political and economic cooperation between the two countries and Syria extends for decades, what Russia offers is different from what Iran offers.
Russia has given Syria a political cover, represented by using veto several times in the UN Security Council, which Iran cannot provide, and Russia’s military participation in the war was limited to air support, which Iran could not provide either, but Iran provided great human and economic support.
Due to its occupation of Arab lands and Islamic sanctities, and its continued persecution of Palestinians in addition to its expansionist ambitions, Israel is the only existential enemy of Syria and Iran, while it has diplomatic interests and relations with Russia. The Russian response to the IL-20 incident was limited to diplomatic pressure, while the response of the Joint Operations Room of the Resistance Axis to targeting sites east of Palmyra was a direct strike on the US al-Tanf base, in full coordination with the Syrian leadership. Therefore, the Russian-Syrian alliance cannot be compared to the Iranian-Syrian alliance.
Al-Tanf base after it was hit on October 20,2021
Conclusions..
Despite Russian interests with Israel, the Russian leadership is watching the Israeli attacks with caution and is fully aware of Israel’s agenda regarding the countries of the Resistance Axis and its expansionist tendency. Perhaps one of the reasons for postponing Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Israel is the Russian reservation about the recent attacks and the Israeli politicians’ exploitation of the Iranian presence in Syria in any negotiations with Russia, in addition to their use of Russian planes as a cover for their attacks more than once.
One of the objectives of the Israeli attacks on Latakia is testing Russia’s response, in addition to demonstrating the Israeli military air superiority to Syria itself and provoking Syria’s leadership to drag it into a war that suits Israel’s timing. It should also be taken into account that activating ISIS cells in the east aims to exhaust and distract the Syrian Arab Army as well as Russia, which gives air cover to the military ground operations.
https://youtu.be/4qoBVKLvTiM
Syrian Arab Army operations in the desert with Russian air cover
It might seem that Russia is one step behind its enemies plans due to the growing Turkish, US and Western influence in areas of Russian interests, as it may also seem stuck in its crisis with NATO in Ukraine, which is the soft spot of Russia as well as Lebanon for Syria. The importance of Ukraine to Russia and America alike can be summed up in what the former US National Security Adviser Brzezinski said in his book “The Grand Chessboard” published in 1997:
“if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.”
The United States and NATO have triggered the Ukraine crisis since 2014 and imposed sanctions on Russia, which lost almost half of its economy where the ruble has dropped from 35 for USD at the time to 74 now. Russia has several options to respond to the western escalation, but any military, political or economic response must be carefully considered. With the exacerbated energy crisis in Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, and the gas price war escalated due to high demand and severe pressures on supply without efficient alternatives. Russia is maneuvering before it deals a fatal blow to the US and NATO through Germany’s ratification of the Nord Stream 2 project, which could be one of the main reasons that prompted Russia’s enemies to fuel the crisis to this extent in an attempt to pressure and occupy it, especially with the deep internal German dispute over the project.
Slashing the gas supplies to Europe by Gazprom through Yamal pipeline, which led to a 70% rise in gas prices, could be a clear explanation for Putin’s veiled threat at the Russian Energy Week:
“Such countries, our main consumers, such as Germany, should bow low to Gerhard Schroeder for the fact that Germany now receives gas at $300, rather than $1,000 or $1,500. This is a positive factor for households, for the people of the Federal Republic of Germany, the industry and the European economy’s global competitiveness.” Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the Russian Energy Week International Forum
A strong Russian response to the US military escalation on Russia’s borders and the provoking of anti-Russian groups in Kazakhstan might be with turning from a completely defensive position into a threatening position by deploying qualitative weapons near the US, such as Venezuela, for example, but this will definitely raise a great tension similar to the Cuban crisis, so the answer might be somewhere else.
When the Soviet Union was losing its war with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the Russian support for Syria in Lebanon, politically and militarily, had a great impact in inflicting a defeat on the United States. Due to Lebanon’s proximity to Palestine, the Syrian victory contributed to the formation of a Lebanese resistance that made deterrence with Israel. Perhaps Russia should be aware that the most effective way to prevent NATO’s expansion and twist the US arm with its allies in Ukraine is putting indirect pressure on Israel itself, which the West will never exchange for Ukraine.
Condemning Israeli’s attacks on Syria may be insufficient to serve Russian’s interests in the Mediterranean while providing Syria with stronger qualitative weapons would serve Russia’s purpose by creating a balance and deterring the United States, Turkey and Israel without dragging the region into a war that suits Israel’s timing, as it would also preserve Russia’s interests and diplomatic relations with Israel at the same time.
“We still have our base in the Mediterranean Sea, there is Khmeimim. In the port of Tartus, there are also coastal missile systems. There may also be ships armed with Zircon hypersonic missiles, which will completely block the entire Mediterranean Sea,” head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov said on ‘Soloviev Live’ YouTube channel
Israel has repeatedly attacked military and civilian airports, air defense systems (such as targeting an early warning system on Thursday, 16 December), and Syrian scientific research centers that developed the Soviet-made systems – Which has limited Israel’s ability to penetrate Syria’s airspace -. In addition to being a way of increasing popular pressure on the Syrian leadership to force it to show what it might be hiding, these are also clear indications that Israel is preparing for a subsequent large-scale aggression that may develop into a direct confrontation, because the continues Israeli escalation will sooner or later lead to a sudden Syrian response, as we witnessed in 2018, when Syria showed a high missile capability compared to Israel, therefore Israel should be careful, for it will lose much more than it thinks it might gain.
Although the Russian military support for Syria is in Russia’s interest, the Syrian leadership must rely, in developing its military capabilities, on countries such as Iran and North Korea and China that have high military efficiency, and also pose a threat to the interests of the United States and Israel, such relations would be a greater political pressure card.
“Capella Space” image shows three impacts 600m’s each apart in Damascus international airport runway, reportedly from an Israeli airstrike on 16/12/2021
Next…
The escalating possibilities of a confrontation between Israel and the axis of resistance..
Ibrahim Wahdi