2016 ‘very likely’ to be warmest on record

A new global temperature forecast says that 2016 is likely to be even warmer than 2015.

This year has already been provisionally declared the warmest on record thanks to a combination of global warming and a strong El Nino.

The new forecast, a combination of computer models and statistical methods, says that the global average temperature for the next 12 months is likely to be 0.84C above the 1961-1990 average.

When compared to the pre-industrial levels, the forecast predicts that next year’s temperature will be 1.1C above the 1850-1899 average. This is edging closer to the 1.5C level.

Last year, the forecast for 2015 predicted a central estimate of 0.64 above the average. Observational data from January to October this year shows the global temperature so far this year is running at 0.72 above 1961-1990.

“The forecast for next year is on the back of some other strong years,” said Prof Adam Scaife.

“In 2014 we had 0.6 which was nominally a record, 2015 so far we’ve had 0.7 which is also nominally a record, and next year we are talking about 0.8 – so you can see that very rapid rise over three years and by the end of 2016 we may be looking at three record years in a row.”

The impact of the strong El Nino that started this year continues through the first half of next year.

It’s already been responsible for a reduced monsoon season in India, it’s also weakened the Atlantic hurricane season and been involved in the early winter storms in Northern Europe in the past few weeks.

The forecasters say it is responsible for up to 0.2C of next year’s value. In combination with continuing climate change, the forecasters believe it will lead to new records.

“There is an uncertainty range, the bottom end of the range for 2016 is very close to the current value for 2015, so it’s not impossible that it will come out the same as 2015 but it is very likely to be higher,” said Prof Scaife.

He added that the rise in temperature predicted for next year may not continue indefinitely – and may slip back under 1 degree over the coming years.

But they argue that the growing warming signal can combine in unpredictable ways with smaller natural fluctuations leading to “unprecedented events”. “said Prof Scaife.

Source: BBC

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